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ABSTRACT Avian irruptions are facultative, often periodic, migrations of thousands of birds outside of their resident range. Irruptive movements produce regional anomalies of abundance that oscillate over time, forming ecological dipoles (geographically disjunct regions of low and high abundance) at continental scales. Potential drivers of irruptions include climate and food variability, but these relationships are rarely tested over broad geographic scales. We used community science data on winter bird abundance (1989–2021) to identify spatiotemporal patterns of irruption for nine boreal birds across the United States and Canada and compared them to time series of winter climate and annual tree seed production. We hypothesized that, during irruption, bird abundance would decrease in regions experiencing colder winter climates (climate variability hypothesis) or low seed production resulting from the boom‐and‐bust of widespread mast‐seeding patterns (resource variability hypothesis). Across all species, we detected latitudinal or longitudinal irruption modes, or both, demonstrating north–south and east–west migration dynamics across the northern United States and southern Canada. Seven of nine species displayed associations consistent with the climate variability hypothesis and six with the resource variability hypothesis. While irruption dynamics are likely entrained by multiple environmental drivers, future climate change could alter the spatial and temporal characteristics of avian irruption. 

Abstract Climate associated ecological phenomena that occur approximately once per decade suggest the influence of decadal climate oscillations. However, the consistency and origins of such climate patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific regions is currently under debate. Here, we propose a probabilistic explanation for episodic ecological events based on the likelihood of multiple climate patterns converging in a particular phase combination. To illustrate, we apply this model to continental scale facultative migration of seed-eating finches out of the boreal forest. Thisirruptionphenomenon is triggered by seed crop failures stemming from two weakly correlated climate patterns occurring simultaneously in their positive phases—the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). The joint probability of NAO and NPO both being positive (above upper tercile) is about $(1/3{)}^2\approx 0.11$, illustrating a simple probabilistic explanation for quasi-decadal finch irruption and potentially other episodic ecological events in regions affected by multiple climate modes. 

Atmospheric variability can impact biological populations by triggering facultative migrations, but the stability of these atmosphere-biosphere connections may be vulnerable to climate change. As an example, we consider the leading mode of continental-scale facultative migration of Pine Siskins, where the associated ecological mechanism is changes in resource availability, with a mechanistic pathway of climate conditions affecting mast seeding patterns in trees which in turn drive bird migration. The three summers prior to pine siskin irruption feature an alternating west-east mast-seeding dipole in conifer trees with opposite anomalies over western and eastern North America. The climate driver of this west-east mast-seeding dipole, referred to as the North American Dipole, occurs during summer in the historical record, but shifts to spring in response to future climate warming during this century in a majority of global climate models. Identification of future changes in the timing of the climate driver of boreal forest mast seeding have broadly important implications for the dynamics of forest ecosystems. 

Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure. The role of environmental prediction as a masting driver is being reassessed; future studies need to estimate prediction accuracy and the benefits acquired. Since reproduction is central to plant adaptation to climate change, understanding how masting adapts to shifting environmental conditions is now a central question. 

Populations of many tree species exhibit synchronous and highly temporally variable seed crops across years. This is called mast seeding, and there are two predominant hypotheses for this pattern of reproduction: pollination efficiency and seed-predator satiation. Mast seeding studies typically involve records of population-level reproduction, with less information on the characteristics of reproductive structures. Here, we use data across 6 years (2012–2017), spanning a range of population-level cone conditions, to characterize (i) white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) cone lengths and seeds per cone, and (ii) levels of seed predation. We quantified population-level cone production and collected 1399 cones from a total of 38 trees in the Huron Mountains, Michigan, USA. Linear mixed models showed that mean and minimum cone lengths varied significantly across years; both being longest during the greatest cone production year. Larger cones had more seeds and the slopes of the relationships as well as the intercepts varied significantly across years. Generalized linear mixed models and Akaike’s information criterion model selection showed that cones with insect predation damage was greatest when population-level reproduction was the lowest, with a mean proportion of cones damaged 0.82 in that year. Our findings show that white spruce cone characteristics and losses to insect seed predation vary temporally, and follow expectations based on mast seeding hypotheses. 

Our overall objective is to synthesize mast-seeding data on North American Pinaceae to detect characteristic features of reproduction (i.e. development cycle length, serotiny, dispersal agents), and test for patterns in temporal variation based on weather variables. We use a large dataset ( n = 286 time series; mean length = 18.9 years) on crop sizes in four conifer genera ( Abies , Picea , Pinus , Tsuga ) collected between 1960 and 2014. Temporal variability in mast seeding (CVp) for 2 year genera ( Abies , Picea , Tsuga ) was higher than for Pinus (3 year), and serotinous species had lower CVp than non-serotinous species; there were no relationships of CVp with elevation or latitude. There was no difference in family-wide CVp across four tree regions of North America. Across all genera, July temperature differences between bud initiation and the prior year (Δ T ) was more strongly associated with reproduction than absolute temperature. Both CVp and Δ T remained steady over time, while absolute temperature increased by 0.09°C per decade. Our use of the Δ T model included a modification for Pinus , which initiates cone primordia 2 years before seedfall, as opposed to 1 year. These findings have implications for how mast-seeding patterns may change with future increases in temperature, and the adaptive benefits of mast seeding. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants’.